The loss was not bad luck. It was bad analysis.
You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical.
Both poker and investing are games of incomplete information. You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical.
When people ask me what I do for a living, I generally tell them ‘I run a hedge fund.’ The majority give me a strange look, so I quickly add, ‘I am a money manager.’ When the strange look persists, as it often does, I correct it to simply, ‘I’m an investor.’ Everyone knows what that is.
What do you call a stock that’s down 90%? A stock that was down 80% and then got cut in half.
A 99% Value-at-Risk calculation does not evaluate what happens in the last one percent… This is like an airbag that works all the time, except when you have a car accident.
There’s more at risk in what happens in Microsoft than I could ever bet on a poker table.
In the real world, illiquid assets carry a discount.
Microsoft could help Facebook with one of the biggest challenges, namely monetizing its traffic without reducing the user’s experience. It’s obvious that Microsoft needs traffic and Facebook needs search.
During my freshman year at Cornell, I joined my dorm’s intramural football team. At the first practice, upper class men pointed out I was tall, so I should try playing QB. Well half an hour later, it was abundantly clear that I should not be the QB.
Texas hold ’em is all about folding and waiting for that time that comes up every hour or two where you actually have an advantage and you can press it.
My father and grandfather were businessmen. The family business was Delphi Paints in New Jersey. When the first energy crisis came in the early 1970s, the business suffered.